West Ham V Sunderland (Prediction 2-1)

West Ham’s home performances continue to be shaped by control rather than intensity, with their attacking output built on sustained pressure and a reliable shot volume rather than quick bursts. Their defensive numbers are stronger at home and they tend to limit clear chances once they establish territory. Sunderland remain competitive and well drilled but their away xGA suggests they concede higher-quality chances when pinned back for long periods. If West Ham can turn possession into early pressure, we expect them to edge a tight contest.

Burnley V Tottenham (Prediction 1-2)

Burnley’s defensive profile remains one of the weakest in the league, particularly against teams that circulate the ball quickly and attack central spaces. They continue to allow a high xGA and often struggle to recover shape once they concede. Tottenham’s away form is not always convincing but their attacking numbers remain strong and they create chances consistently across matches. Burnley may keep the game close early but Spurs’ superior chance quality should make the difference over 90 minutes.

Fulham V Brighton (Prediction 1-1)

This fixture looks finely balanced on almost every underlying metric. Fulham’s home performances are steady and their xG output suggests they can compete with most mid-table sides. Brighton control games well and limit opponents without necessarily dominating the scoreboard. Both teams are comfortable recycling possession and neither tends to overcommit, which points towards a low-margin contest where clear chances are limited and a draw feels the most likely outcome.

Manchester City V Wolves (Prediction 3-0)

City’s attacking metrics remain comfortably the strongest in the league, with elite xG figures and a relentless ability to sustain pressure. Wolves continue to struggle for goals and their defensive numbers suggest they concede high volumes of chances once forced deep. City’s patience in possession should stretch Wolves gradually, creating repeated opportunities across the match. This has the feel of a game where control is absolute and the scoreline reflects the gap in quality.

Bournemouth V Liverpool (Prediction 1-2)

Bournemouth’s attacking output suggests they are capable of creating chances against most opponents, particularly at home, but their defensive record against stronger sides remains fragile. Liverpool’s away performances have not always been dominant but their underlying xG remains strong and they rarely leave games without creating multiple clear chances. Bournemouth may threaten in spells but Liverpool’s ability to convert pressure into goals should be enough to secure a narrow victory.

Brentford V Nottingham Forest (Prediction 2-1)

Brentford’s home data continues to point towards positive performances, especially in terms of chance creation and set-piece threat. Forest are capable on the break but their away defensive numbers remain a concern and they often struggle when asked to defend sustained pressure. Brentford’s structure and consistency should allow them to control large spells, with Forest likely relying on moments rather than momentum.

Crystal Palace V Chelsea (Prediction 1-2)

Chelsea’s attacking metrics remain among the strongest outside the top two, with high xG totals that suggest goals should follow more regularly. Palace have found it difficult to consistently convert possession into chances and their defensive numbers dip against teams that move the ball quickly between the lines. Chelsea should dominate possession and territory, and while Palace may threaten in transition, the visitors’ chance volume should be decisive.

Newcastle V Aston Villa (Prediction 2-2)

This has all the hallmarks of an open contest. Newcastle remain strong at home and generate chances consistently but Villa’s form and attacking efficiency make them dangerous in any away fixture. Both sides are comfortable playing at tempo and neither has shown a tendency to sit back in big games. With attacking numbers strong on both sides and defensive metrics less convincing, goals at both ends feel inevitable.

Arsenal V Manchester United (Prediction 2-1)

Arsenal’s position at the top of the table is supported by elite attacking and defensive metrics, particularly at home where they control games effectively. United continue to create chances but their away defensive record leaves them vulnerable under sustained pressure. Arsenal’s pressing and ability to keep opponents pinned back should generate enough chances to edge a competitive but controlled contest.

Everton V Leeds (Prediction 1-1)

Everton’s recent improvement has been driven by defensive stability rather than attacking fluency, with their xG numbers still trailing the league average. Leeds bring energy and intensity and their pressing can disrupt sides that struggle to progress the ball cleanly. This looks like a match where momentum swings but neither side quite does enough to take full control, making a draw the most likely outcome.

The Weekly Narrative

Gameweek 23 appears shaped by fine margins rather than dominance. Manchester City look set to impose themselves convincingly, while Arsenal aim to maintain control at the summit in a demanding fixture. Newcastle V Aston Villa stands out as the most open game of the round, with attacking intent on both sides likely to dictate the outcome. Elsewhere, several mid-table matchups hinge on efficiency and defensive concentration, suggesting a week where narrow victories and hard-fought draws may define the landscape.