Aston Villa V Leeds (Prediction 2-1)

Villa are strong overall (37 goals from 35 xG) but they concede chances (27 GA with a 38 xGA). Leeds games stay open because they score plenty (36 from 40 xG) but the back end is leaky (45 GA). That combination points to both teams getting chances and neither looking comfortable protecting a lead. Villa at home should be the calmer side in the final third and that usually tells over 90 minutes. Leeds can absolutely score here but Villa’s extra control should be enough to edge it.

Brentford V Brighton (Prediction 1-1)

Brentford’s attack is legit (40 from 46 xG) but they also allow plenty (35 GA with 38 xGA). Brighton are similar: good output (34 from 38 xG) but a defence that can be stretched (34 GA 39 xGA). This has “trade a couple of big chances each” written all over it. If Brentford get rhythm early it becomes a momentum game but Brighton have enough to calm it down. A draw feels right with both teams creating without either fully shutting the other out.

Chelsea V Burnley (Prediction 3-0)

Chelsea’s attack is relentless on the data: 47 goals from 54 xG which suggests the chances keep coming. Burnley are struggling at both ends: 28 goals from 24 xG but 51 conceded with a 56 xGA. That is the kind of profile that collapses if they concede early and have to chase. Chelsea should dominate territory and volume then it becomes about turning pressure into a comfortable margin. A clean sheet looks likely here because Burnley’s chance creation is not strong enough to survive long spells without the ball.

West Ham V Bournemouth (Prediction 2-2)

West Ham’s numbers scream volatility: 32 scored from 32 xG but 49 conceded with a 50 xGA. Bournemouth are the definition of open: 43 scored from 45 xG and 45 conceded despite a 38 xGA. So you have one side that bleeds chances and another that happily turns games into shootouts. Bournemouth can hurt anyone when the game breaks but West Ham at home should generate enough too. I can see this swinging back and forth and finishing level with goals both ways.

Man City V Newcastle (Prediction 2-1)

City are still the benchmark for consistent output: 54 goals from 51 xG and they keep the volume high. Newcastle’s attack is strong too (37 from 43 xG) so they can punish City if they get transition chances. The challenge for Newcastle is living without the ball and surviving City’s wave after wave around the box. City also are not perfect defensively (24 GA 31 xGA) so Newcastle will get at least one proper chance. I still lean City because over 90 minutes they usually create the “extra” big chance that decides matches like this.

Crystal Palace V Wolves (Prediction 2-1)

Wolves are having a tough season: 18 goals from 24 xG and 50 conceded even though xGA is 46. Palace are much better going forward than their table position suggests: 28 goals from a huge 44 xG. That tells you Palace create plenty and could easily have scored more across the season. If Palace keep generating that volume then Wolves will spend too long defending their box. I’m backing Palace to finally convert enough chances to win a tight away game.

Nottingham Forest V Liverpool (Prediction 1-2)

Forest have struggled defensively: 38 conceded with a 43 xGA and that is dangerous against Liverpool. Liverpool’s attack is strong (41 from 47 xG) even if they have conceded more than the very top sides (35 GA). Forest at home can grab a goal because Liverpool do give looks away but sustained defending is the worry. Liverpool should create the higher quality chances and force Forest deeper as the match goes on. I’m backing Liverpool to win a tight one where Forest make it awkward but Liverpool find two moments.

Sunderland V Fulham (Prediction 2-2)

Sunderland’s xG is modest (27 goals from 26 xG) but their xGA is high at 41 which invites chances. Fulham also concede a lot: 40 GA with a 41 xGA which keeps games lively. Neither side looks built for a calm 1-0 where they shut the door for the last half hour. If Sunderland go direct early Fulham will get space back the other way and it becomes end-to-end. This feels like a classic draw where both teams score because the defences do not control the game state well.

Tottenham V Arsenal (Prediction 1-2)

Arsenal’s season profile is elite: 52 goals from 53 xG and only 20 conceded with a 21 xGA. Spurs can make it uncomfortable if they can drag Arsenal into transitions rather than settled defending. Arsenal’s edge is that they create reliably without needing a “perfect” game and they do not give much away. This feels like a match where Spurs have spells but Arsenal’s structure wins the key moments. I’m backing Arsenal to ride a scare then nick it late through sustained pressure and better shot quality.

Everton V Man United (Prediction 1-2)

Everton are mid-table messy: 29 goals from 33 xG and 30 conceded but a hefty 40 xGA. United score at a top side rate (47 from 49 xG) but they are not watertight either (37 GA 34 xGA). That mix usually produces a game where both teams get moments and the winner is whoever finishes better. Everton at home can make it scrappy but United have more routes to goals across the match. I can see Everton scoring first or levelling it but United’s attacking quality should decide it late.

Weekly Narrative

GW27 has that proper “season-shaping” feel. The headline is Tottenham V Arsenal where Arsenal’s numbers still scream title pace (52 goals from 53 xG with only 20 conceded) but Spurs at home can turn it into a chaos game if they make it open early. Man City V Newcastle looks like another test of City’s control and finishing with City sitting on 54 goals from 51 xG while Newcastle’s output is strong (37 from 43 xG) but their margins are thinner when they are forced to defend for long spells.

Lower down, the pressure is on in places too. Chelsea V Burnley is the classic “must-win on paper” fixture and Chelsea’s attack is flying (47 goals from 54 xG) so it’s about whether they stay patient and professional. Everton V Man United feels like a swing match for the European chase because both can score but both also give you a look defensively. Then there are a few sneaky fantasy spots: Sunderland V Fulham could be more open than the names suggest and Brentford V Brighton looks like one of those tight games where set pieces and small moments decide everything.