Chelsea V Leeds (Prediction 3–1)

Chelsea’s attacking output continues to be driven by volume and territory, with their xG numbers consistently among the league’s elite. At home, they sustain pressure well and force opponents into long defensive spells, something Leeds have struggled with this season. Leeds’ high-energy approach can disrupt rhythm early, but it often leaves gaps once the game opens up. Chelsea’s ability to attack in waves and recycle possession should gradually stretch Leeds’ defensive shape. Leeds may find a goal through intensity or transition, but Chelsea’s control and depth should tell decisively.

Everton V Bournemouth (Prediction 2–1)

Everton’s recent home performances suggest a side increasingly comfortable dictating tempo against mid-table opposition. Their xG conceded has improved, and they are allowing fewer clear chances at Goodison Park. Bournemouth remain capable going forward, but defensive lapses continue to undermine otherwise competitive displays. Everton’s more direct attacking style suits this matchup, particularly against a Bournemouth back line that struggles under sustained pressure. Expect a competitive contest, but Everton’s marginal edge in control and physicality should be enough to secure the points.

Tottenham V Newcastle (Prediction 2–2)

This fixture brings together two sides with strong attacking profiles and clear defensive vulnerabilities. Tottenham continue to create chances at a high rate but struggle to manage games once they lose momentum. Newcastle’s pressing and transition play remain effective, particularly against teams that commit numbers forward. Both sides are likely to enjoy spells of dominance, with end-to-end phases becoming increasingly common as the game progresses. Neither defence inspires confidence when protecting a lead, making a high-scoring draw the most logical outcome.

West Ham V Manchester United (Prediction 1–2)

West Ham remain difficult to beat at home but continue to concede high-quality chances against teams with strong attacking depth. Manchester United’s xG output reflects a side capable of breaking down compact blocks, even if defensive consistency remains elusive. United should control possession for long periods and look to exploit gaps between West Ham’s midfield and defence. West Ham’s threat will likely come from set pieces and moments of direct play. Ultimately, United’s attacking quality should edge a tight contest decided by fine margins.

Aston Villa V Brighton (Prediction 2–1)

Villa’s home form continues to be underpinned by aggressive pressing and efficient chance creation. Brighton remain committed to their possession-based approach but have struggled to convert dominance into goals against organised opposition. Villa’s ability to attack quickly after turnovers could be decisive, particularly if Brighton commit numbers forward. Brighton should see plenty of the ball but may find clear chances limited. A narrow Villa win feels likely in a match where control and efficiency outweigh possession.

Crystal Palace V Burnley (Prediction 2–0)

Palace’s underlying numbers suggest a side capable of greater control than their league position implies. Burnley, by contrast, continue to concede a high volume of chances, reflected in one of the league’s weakest xGA records. Palace’s wide play and willingness to stretch defensive lines should create consistent openings. Burnley’s attacking output remains limited, particularly away from home. Palace should manage this fixture professionally and secure a clean-sheet victory.

Manchester City V Fulham (Prediction 3–0)

City’s attacking metrics remain relentless, with their xG and shot volume reflecting sustained dominance in almost every home fixture. Fulham’s defensive structure has shown vulnerability against elite sides, particularly when forced to defend deep for long spells. City’s ability to rotate attackers and exploit half-spaces should stretch Fulham repeatedly. Fulham may resist early, but fatigue and pressure are likely to tell. A comfortable City win looks inevitable.

Nottingham Forest V Wolves (Prediction 1–1)

Forest have tightened defensively but still lack consistency in attacking output. Wolves remain compact and disciplined, often keeping matches close even when creating limited chances themselves. This fixture feels likely to be decided by moments rather than sustained dominance. Both sides may struggle to impose a clear identity on the game, leading to a scrappy and physical contest. A low-scoring draw reflects the balance between caution and limited attacking threat.

Sunderland V Liverpool (Prediction 1–3)

Sunderland’s performances suggest a competitive side capable of strong starts, particularly at home. However, Liverpool’s attacking depth and sustained xG output give them a clear edge as matches wear on. Liverpool’s ability to press high and force turnovers should gradually push Sunderland deeper. Sunderland may threaten early or from set pieces, but Liverpool’s quality in the final third should create separation. A controlled away win with goals on both sides feels likely.

Brentford V Arsenal (Prediction 1–2)

Brentford remain one of the league’s most awkward home opponents, particularly through set pieces and direct play. Arsenal’s defensive record, however, continues to be among the strongest, supported by excellent xGA figures. Arsenal should dominate possession and limit Brentford’s transitional opportunities. Brentford may create moments of danger, but Arsenal’s composure and efficiency in key areas should prevail. A narrow away win fits the profile of this matchup.

Wolves V Arsenal (Prediction 0–2)

Arsenal’s consistency and tactical discipline make them well suited to navigating a second fixture in quick succession. Wolves’ attacking struggles are reflected in low goal output and limited xG creation. Arsenal should dominate territory and control the rhythm of the game from the outset. Wolves may defend resolutely but lack the tools to sustain pressure at the other end. Arsenal’s patience should eventually lead to a comfortable win.

The Weekly Narrative

Gameweek 26 shapes up as a pivotal moment for the league’s frontrunners, with Arsenal and Manchester City both presented with fixtures that reward control and efficiency. Liverpool’s attacking firepower remains a defining factor, particularly against sides who struggle to maintain defensive structure for 90 minutes. In the congested mid-table, fine margins continue to separate teams, with several fixtures likely decided by moments rather than dominance. At the lower end, defensive fragility remains the defining concern, with teams under pressure needing more than effort alone to shift momentum. The contrast between clinical execution at the top and instability below continues to define the season’s rhythm.