Man Utd V Man City (Prediction 1-2):

The Manchester derby arrives with both sides posting elite attacking numbers, but the difference continues to lie in control and defensive stability. United generate chances freely yet still allow high-quality looks at the other end, particularly when pressed deep for extended spells. City’s patience in possession and ability to recycle pressure should gradually stretch United’s defensive structure. We expect United to have moments in transition and threaten on the break, but over ninety minutes City’s sustained pressure and superior game management should prove decisive.

Chelsea V Brentford (Prediction 2-1):

Chelsea’s attacking metrics remain strong both in volume and chance quality, and this home fixture looks well suited to their strengths. Brentford remain organised and capable of frustrating opponents, but their recent form and defensive data suggest they struggle when forced to defend deep for long periods. Chelsea should dominate territory and territory usually brings chances, though Brentford’s direct approach may keep the contest alive. A narrow home win feels the most likely outcome.

Leeds V Fulham (Prediction 1-1):

This fixture pairs two sides who consistently create chances but also leave space defensively. Leeds’ intensity at home often leads to early pressure, while Fulham’s away performances have shown discipline and an ability to absorb pressure before striking. Neither side shows a clear statistical edge across attack or defence and this looks set to be a game of swings in momentum. A draw reflects the balance suggested by the numbers.

Liverpool V Burnley (Prediction 3-0):

Liverpool enter this match with dominant attacking data and one of the strongest home profiles in the league. Burnley continue to concede heavily both in goals and expected goals, especially away from home. Liverpool’s ability to apply sustained pressure and force defensive errors should result in chances arriving regularly. Burnley may initially resist but the data suggests containment over ninety minutes is unlikely.

Sunderland V Crystal Palace (Prediction 1-1):

Sunderland’s league position and form underline their competitiveness and this is another opportunity to reinforce that. Palace’s attacking output remains respectable, but defensive inconsistency continues to undermine them. The numbers point toward a close contest where both sides generate chances without fully controlling the game. Neither side stands out strongly enough to justify a clear favourite, making a draw the most fitting prediction.

Tottenham V West Ham (Prediction 2-1):

Tottenham’s attacking approach and home performances give them the edge in this London derby. West Ham’s defensive data remains a concern and they often concede sustained pressure, particularly against sides willing to push numbers forward. That said, West Ham retain a threat from set plays and counter-attacks which could keep the game tight. Tottenham’s ability to stretch play and create chances in open play should ultimately separate the sides.

Nottingham Forest V Arsenal (Prediction 1-2):

Arsenal continue to pair elite attacking output with one of the strongest defensive records in the league. Forest’s home form has been competitive and they tend to make games uncomfortable, but their defensive metrics suggest they will allow chances here. Arsenal’s control in possession and efficiency in the final third should see them manage the contest even if Forest remain in it for long spells.

Wolves V Newcastle (Prediction 0-2):

Wolves’ ongoing struggles in front of goal are reflected clearly in both goals scored and expected goals. Newcastle arrive with strong attacking metrics and improving defensive structure, particularly away from home. If Newcastle establish early control, Wolves may find it difficult to respond. This matchup favours the visitors across most key indicators.

Aston Villa V Everton (Prediction 2-1):

Villa’s home performances remain a major strength and their attacking numbers continue to justify confidence going forward. Everton have shown resilience at times but their away data highlights issues in sustaining pressure and limiting chances. Villa should control possession and create the clearer opportunities, though Everton’s physicality may keep the margin tight.

Brighton V Bournemouth (Prediction 2-1):

Brighton’s attacking metrics remain impressive, especially in home fixtures where their shot volume increases noticeably. Bournemouth’s recent improvement is encouraging but defensive vulnerability persists. This shapes up as an open game with chances at both ends, but Brighton’s superior control and consistency in chance creation give them the edge.

The Weekly Narrative

Gameweek 22 shapes up as a pivotal round where the league’s frontrunners are expected to maintain momentum against opponents whose underlying numbers suggest limited room for error. Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool all appear well placed to collect points, while several mid-table fixtures hinge on fine margins driven by defensive discipline rather than attacking flair. As the season progresses, consistency and control continue to define the teams at the top, while the chasing pack remains tightly bunched and increasingly reliant on efficiency rather than volume to climb the table.