West Ham V Nottingham Forest (Prediction 2-1)

West Ham’s home advantage is key here, particularly given Forest’s continued struggles defending away from home. Forest’s xGA on the road remains high and they often allow sustained pressure, which plays into West Ham’s strengths. While West Ham are far from watertight defensively, their ability to generate chances in spells at home should eventually overwhelm Forest, even if the visitors stay competitive for long periods.

Bournemouth V Tottenham (Prediction 1-2)

Bournemouth are improving in attack but their defensive structure still leaves space against stronger sides. Tottenham’s attacking metrics remain consistently strong and they tend to create chances regardless of venue. Bournemouth may cause problems in transition but Spurs’ higher shot volume and xG advantage suggest they’ll edge a tight contest, likely needing patience rather than dominance.

Brentford V Sunderland (Prediction 2-0)

Brentford’s underlying numbers at home continue to be among the most dependable in the league. They limit opposition chances well while creating enough sustained pressure to force goals. Sunderland’s away form and defensive data remain concerning and unless they can significantly outperform their xG, this looks like a controlled Brentford performance built on territory and efficiency.

Crystal Palace V Aston Villa (Prediction 1-2)

Palace remain awkward opponents at home but Villa’s consistency across form and attacking output gives them the edge. Villa continue to convert chances at a higher rate than most teams and are comfortable playing through pressure. Palace should create moments but their defensive metrics suggest Villa will find space often enough to secure another narrow away win.

Everton V Wolves (Prediction 1-1)

This fixture looks finely balanced across almost every key metric. Everton’s home xG numbers are respectable but Wolves’ ability to stay compact and frustrate opponents makes them difficult to break down. Neither side consistently turns chances into goals, so a low-scoring draw feels likely, with both teams cancelling each other out for long stretches.

Fulham V Chelsea (Prediction 1-2)

Fulham are competitive at home and usually generate chances but their defensive numbers suggest vulnerability against teams that attack in waves. Chelsea continue to post strong attacking xG despite mixed results and should see plenty of the ball here. Fulham can threaten on the break but Chelsea’s chance creation should eventually tilt the game in their favour.

Manchester City V Brighton (Prediction 3-1)

City’s attacking dominance remains unmatched and Brighton’s willingness to play expansively could be punished. While Brighton can threaten going forward, their defensive xGA away from home is a concern against a City side that relentlessly builds pressure. Expect Brighton to have moments but City’s sustained control should lead to a comfortable margin by full time.

Burnley V Manchester United (Prediction 1-2)

Burnley’s defensive struggles continue to show up clearly in the data, particularly in the volume and quality of chances they concede. United’s away performances are inconsistent but their attacking numbers remain strong enough to exploit Burnley’s weaknesses. Burnley may stay in the game early but United should eventually pull clear through superior chance creation.

Newcastle V Leeds (Prediction 2-0)

Newcastle’s home performances remain solid and Leeds’ defensive record away from home continues to be a major issue. Leeds allow a high number of shots and struggle to control games defensively. If Newcastle establish early control, this could become a fairly straightforward home win built on pressure rather than a goal-fest.

Arsenal V Liverpool (Prediction 2-2)

This has all the hallmarks of a high-quality, open contest. Arsenal continue to generate elite attacking numbers while Liverpool’s chance creation remains among the league’s best. Neither defence has been entirely convincing and both sides regularly outperform opponents in xG. A draw feels the most likely outcome, with goals at both ends and momentum swings throughout.

The Weekly Narrative

GW21 looks set to favour teams capable of controlling games rather than relying on moments. Home advantage stands out, with sides like Manchester City and Brentford well placed to turn sustained pressure into results against opponents who concede high-quality chances. Several fixtures suggest clear dominance should tell, particularly where form and underlying numbers align.

The headline fixture remains Arsenal V Liverpool, a contest shaped by attacking quality rather than defensive caution. Both sides continue to generate chances at an elite level, making this a game that could swing on momentum and fine margins. Elsewhere, matches such as Everton V Wolves and Bournemouth V Tottenham look more finely balanced, where discipline and efficiency may outweigh volume.

Overall, this gameweek rewards trusting form trends and home strength, with favourites expected to deliver while the tighter mid-table clashes could be decided late.