Bournemouth V Everton (Prediction 1–1):

Bournemouth enter this game with improved attacking output in recent weeks and their xG of 20 highlights that they remain a side capable of creating chances even when results fluctuate. Their defensive vulnerability remains a concern with 23 conceded and FDR showing a tough challenge despite playing at home. Everton’s metrics mirror their season well with a stable defensive structure but inconsistent finishing. Their xGA of 20 shows they tend to keep matches tight without controlling them fully. Bournemouth’s home energy should give them spells of momentum yet Everton’s compact approach often drags games into narrow margins. A low scoring draw feels the most balanced outcome.

Fulham V Man City (Prediction 0–3):

Fulham face one of the hardest fixtures of the round with an FDR deep in the red and recent form trending downward. Their defensive numbers reflect genuine issues with 22 conceded and an xGA of 20 showing how frequently opponents break through them. Man City arrive in excellent rhythm with the league’s joint-best attack and an xG of 26 that continues to rise. Their recent form is strong and their defensive stability adds another layer of control. Fulham tend to leave gaps when chasing the match and against City that becomes a dangerous pattern. The visitors should dictate both territory and tempo comfortably.

Newcastle V Tottenham (Prediction 1–2):

Newcastle remain difficult to predict. Their xG of 19 shows they create opportunities but their defensive trend is slipping with 19 conceded and form moving in an inconsistent pattern. Tottenham’s away fixtures have been mixed but their attacking output remains steady with 21 goals scored and an ability to accelerate games with quick transitions. Their FDR rating is neutral but their form leans slightly stronger than Newcastle’s. This matchup should feature open phases with both sides breaking quickly however Tottenham’s sharper cutting edge and higher confidence level should allow them to edge a competitive encounter.

Arsenal V Brentford (Prediction 2–0):

Arsenal continue to set the standard this season with the league’s strongest defensive structure. Seven goals conceded and an xGA of eight underline how difficult it is to create clear chances against them. Their attack has also maintained balance with 25 goals and an xG that matches that output closely. Brentford arrive with reasonable numbers going forward but their defensive issues persist with 20 conceded and a form line that has dipped after a strong mid-season push. With Arsenal’s FDR at home marked green and their recent form showing consistency this looks like a fixture where their control and organisation should prevail with minimal risk.

Brighton V Aston Villa (Prediction 1–2):

Brighton’s season remains defined by their attacking boldness and defensive unpredictability. With 21 goals scored and 19 conceded they continue to produce end-to-end matches driven by a high tempo and lots of movement. Aston Villa maintain one of the league’s best balances with an xGA of 18 and an attack that continues to outperform its numbers through sharp finishing. Their form is strong and their FDR for this match is green which reflects confidence in their ability to manage Brighton’s phases of pressure. Brighton will threaten in spells but Villa look more complete in both penalty areas at the moment.

Burnley V Crystal Palace (Prediction 1–2):

Burnley’s defensive issues continue to sink them. With 27 conceded and an xGA of 31 they remain the most exposed defensive unit in the league. Palace are far more stable especially defensively with only 11 conceded and strong organisation across the pitch. Their attack can be inconsistent but they have shown enough in recent weeks to suggest they can hurt sides who give away space between the lines. Burnley should have energetic moments at home but Palace’s structure and discipline usually translate well into away fixtures especially with a green-rated FDR for this game.

Wolves V Nottingham Forest (Prediction 1–1):

Wolves continue to battle through a difficult season but their recent form has shown signs of improvement even if their deeper numbers remain worrying. With only seven goals scored they struggle to convert chances and their xG reflects that bluntness. Forest arrive with similarly mixed form and a defence that has conceded 22 with an xGA of the same value which suggests their issues are structural. Both teams approach this match in need of stability which often leads to more cautious tactical choices. Wolves’ home advantage balances Forest’s slightly stronger attacking metrics and a draw feels the most fitting conclusion.

Leeds V Chelsea (Prediction 0–2):

Leeds remain stuck in the bottom three with a concerning defensive record of 25 conceded and an xGA of 18 that continues to rise. Their attack has moments of quality but rarely sustains pressure long enough to change the flow of matches. Chelsea arrive in strong form with a green FDR rating and excellent attacking numbers. With 24 goals scored and an impressive xG of 25 they consistently create high-value opportunities. Their defence offers enough stability to keep Leeds at arm’s length especially given the home side’s struggles to turn energy into precision. Chelsea should control the key phases.

Liverpool V Sunderland (Prediction 2–1):

Liverpool’s season remains built on strong underlying numbers despite a league position that feels below expectation. Their xG of 23 is one of the strongest in the league and their defensive issues have improved in recent weeks. Sunderland have been one of the season’s big positives. Their defensive organisation is excellent with only 13 conceded and their form remains steady. Their away FDR falls into the red however which reflects the size of this challenge. Sunderland’s structure should keep them competitive but Liverpool’s attacking volume at Anfield usually finds a way through eventually.

Man Utd V West Ham (Prediction 2–1):

Man Utd continue to blend strong attacking output with defensive vulnerability. Their 22 goals scored and xG that aligns well with that tell a story of a side capable of forcing breakthroughs even when performances look uneven. West Ham’s situation is far more troubling with 27 conceded and an xGA of 26 indicating deep structural issues. Their form remains poor and their FDR for this match is deep red. United’s home performances tend to carry greater urgency and given West Ham’s defensive instability the hosts should generate enough pressure to come out on top.

The Weekly Narrative

Gameweek 14 arrives rapidly on the back of a busy schedule and the table is beginning to divide into clear groups. Arsenal and Man City continue to set the pace with performances that show consistency and discipline in key moments while Aston Villa remain firmly in the conversation after another strong run of form. Sunderland’s resilience continues to impress and their trip to Liverpool offers a genuine test of how far they have come. Chelsea look well placed to maintain momentum while Man Utd aim to stay in touch with the leading pack. At the opposite end the situation grows increasingly tense for Burnley and West Ham whose defensive issues are becoming defining storylines. With midweek fixtures offering little recovery time the teams with stronger structure and clearer identity are likely to benefit the most.